Thursday, October 04, 2007
The Dream: What the "Market" told me ....last night.---FICTION"
Well, it's been a long week, with the national news and all, and Alan Greenspan who was so forceful telling everyone on his book signing tour that the real estate market would go down 20% and had just begun, and then just today changed his mind and said things had bottomed out. Maybe his book sales had turned the whole thing around.
I have always had a habit of saving the Wall Street Journal, and then NOT reading it every day, but after two weeks, picking up the daily and seeing what had been pretty accurate stories and what had been flim flam.
Nothing like letting the facts settle a bit BEFORE you read it, rather than AFTER. It sure makes things real efficient. The problem is with most daily papers that are carried on the internet......the stories are deleted after a few days. That makes checking the facts later difficult..............................
Last night, in the very middle of the night, I awoke in a startle. It seemed I heard the "Market" calling me. At first it was pretty faint, but it gradually got louder and louder.
The person had a little sign on his chest that said "MARKET" and asked whether I was listening. I replied; "YES. Please speak."
Then he said:
"We are in a National Housing Slowdown.
This means that there are too many houses
TOO MANY HOUSES
DO NOT BUILD MORE
Wait till the surplus is taken and then proceed."
Understand? "Yes" I replied. Then he went on.
There are several causes to the current distress
The financial sector is troubled by mortgage fraud by brokers...so
regulate them and punish the wrongdoers....
"Understand? "Yes" I replied. Then he went on.
I understand some of you think that your local administrator, Mr. Connors caused
the national housing problems. He was a powerful guy. But...... No ----He did not cause
the national housing crisis. If you still think he did, I suggest counseling."
Then he vanished.
It sure is good to listen to the market, even when it comes in a dream.
Posted by Evansville Observer at 10:09 PM
1 comments:
Mr. Obvious said...
Its too bad someone else didn't have that same dream instead of putting 10 more pounds of houses into our areas five pound capacity.
I'm sure the city will be proactive with this issue just like they are in every other hot button; fences, signs. Good thing we have some nice looking fences on those forclosed homes.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
"Napkin Dreams"---a true story
Napkin Dreams
Napkin Dreams
When I was in my late 20’s, each year it seemed to get harder and harder for the guys to get together for the frequent parties we had enjoyed previously. It especially got hard once the guys started getting married and having kids. So, we began the tradition of each fall having a camping weekend. It was mandatory. Bring the wife. Bring the kids. But show up by 9PM at the campfire. We called this “check in.”
One Friday eve, about 9pm we all showed up at a campground near Sugar River, MN. Tom, a rising legal star, was next standing next to Craig, a rising architect. W e were going through what management gurus call “opening round”. Each was sharing a beer. “Well, Craig said, How are things?” Tom replied, “Do you mean personally or professionally?” Craig responded, “Both.”
“Professionally things are great. I just argued a case before the Supreme Court last week and I think we won. You may have heard about it in the news. Personally though, I am going through a messy divorce and it is the pits. I have been sitting in my shack on Lake Calhoun and just am really determined to begin a new life.”
“Well,” Craig said, “ what’s wrong with the “shack’? “Everything-- It’s just a four square bungalow and I really need a beautiful chalet.”
Which side of the lake? “ Craig asked. “South side? “Yes”, Tom responded.
“Well,” Craig said,’ Has anyone got a piece of paper or anything.” Everybody at the campfire searched. “Nope.” Finally, Cindy yelled from the tent where she was just putting two young ones to bed. “How about a Bounty napkin? “ “Yes, that would do,”Craig yelled.
Getting situated with the bounty napkin on a large piece of wood, Craig said. “ I think this is going to require a beer or two.” Quickly Tom yelled out “Get this man a beer!
Craig then went over the fact that because the home was on the south side of the lake, it was in a great position for a view, except for the fact that it had poorly placed windows and was not high enough. Then he sketched how Tom might change the design
to fully utilize the lighting.
Furthermore, if you added a third story---admittedly a “periscope” on the very top of the house, you would have yourself a magical law office that would have a fabulous view of the whole lake. He then sketched how it would look.
As we looked around the campfire glow, everyone had a look as though if Tom did not build it, one of the others would. Tom, however, was very excited about it.
Then Craig tore off the excess Bounty napkin in a flourish and handed the design to Tom. Tom folded it gently and headed to his tent. “We’ll need a little more detail so you can build from it, but that is the beginning,” Craig yelled. Everyone laughed.
If you drive along the south side of Lake Calhoun in Minneapolis, you will see a beautiful tri level home, with the third story that looks like a large periscope. It was once just a shack but now is probably a million-dollar home.
Over the years I have marveled at how large dreams can begin in a very small fashion, and even on just a napkin. However, you do have to have the napkins. Just words and stories will not do.
As I have told this story often in Minnesota and Wisconsin, the question always comes up, “What kind of beer was it?”
I suppose the fantasy is that one could have a large dream with just cheap beer. All I know is that it was not Cold Spring beer. It was a fine dark German lager. After all, it is my story.
Napkin Dreams
When I was in my late 20’s, each year it seemed to get harder and harder for the guys to get together for the frequent parties we had enjoyed previously. It especially got hard once the guys started getting married and having kids. So, we began the tradition of each fall having a camping weekend. It was mandatory. Bring the wife. Bring the kids. But show up by 9PM at the campfire. We called this “check in.”
One Friday eve, about 9pm we all showed up at a campground near Sugar River, MN. Tom, a rising legal star, was next standing next to Craig, a rising architect. W e were going through what management gurus call “opening round”. Each was sharing a beer. “Well, Craig said, How are things?” Tom replied, “Do you mean personally or professionally?” Craig responded, “Both.”
“Professionally things are great. I just argued a case before the Supreme Court last week and I think we won. You may have heard about it in the news. Personally though, I am going through a messy divorce and it is the pits. I have been sitting in my shack on Lake Calhoun and just am really determined to begin a new life.”
“Well,” Craig said, “ what’s wrong with the “shack’? “Everything-- It’s just a four square bungalow and I really need a beautiful chalet.”
Which side of the lake? “ Craig asked. “South side? “Yes”, Tom responded.
“Well,” Craig said,’ Has anyone got a piece of paper or anything.” Everybody at the campfire searched. “Nope.” Finally, Cindy yelled from the tent where she was just putting two young ones to bed. “How about a Bounty napkin? “ “Yes, that would do,”Craig yelled.
Getting situated with the bounty napkin on a large piece of wood, Craig said. “ I think this is going to require a beer or two.” Quickly Tom yelled out “Get this man a beer!
Craig then went over the fact that because the home was on the south side of the lake, it was in a great position for a view, except for the fact that it had poorly placed windows and was not high enough. Then he sketched how Tom might change the design
to fully utilize the lighting.
Furthermore, if you added a third story---admittedly a “periscope” on the very top of the house, you would have yourself a magical law office that would have a fabulous view of the whole lake. He then sketched how it would look.
As we looked around the campfire glow, everyone had a look as though if Tom did not build it, one of the others would. Tom, however, was very excited about it.
Then Craig tore off the excess Bounty napkin in a flourish and handed the design to Tom. Tom folded it gently and headed to his tent. “We’ll need a little more detail so you can build from it, but that is the beginning,” Craig yelled. Everyone laughed.
If you drive along the south side of Lake Calhoun in Minneapolis, you will see a beautiful tri level home, with the third story that looks like a large periscope. It was once just a shack but now is probably a million-dollar home.
Over the years I have marveled at how large dreams can begin in a very small fashion, and even on just a napkin. However, you do have to have the napkins. Just words and stories will not do.
As I have told this story often in Minnesota and Wisconsin, the question always comes up, “What kind of beer was it?”
I suppose the fantasy is that one could have a large dream with just cheap beer. All I know is that it was not Cold Spring beer. It was a fine dark German lager. After all, it is my story.
"Yike"---a true story
Wednesday, August 09, 2006
"Yike"----a true story
Monday night I had forgotten a key ingredient for grilling, so I rushed back to the Piggly Wiggly to get it.
In the checkout line just behind me was a young father and his son, about 4yr.old. As I was writing out the check, I heard the boy ask, "What's this dad?" His dad replied, "That's a peanut bar."
"I yike peanuts, Dad! I really yike them. Can I have one?"
"NO, son, the father replied."
Then the son said, "What's this dad?"
"That's a choclate bar."
"I yike choclate! I really, really yike chocolate. Oh can't I have one?"
"No son," he said firmly, but gently.
I was tempted, as I was possibly the only phonics trained person in the checkout line, to take a moment and go over how to pronounce the "l" sound, with the tounge pressed to the top of the mouth. It was easy to master and I know I could have changed the "yike" in short order.
On reflection, I realized how lucky this youngster was to have such a fine dad and that what was being taught here was far more than just a little consonant sound. That could be dealt with later.
Yes. The more I listened to the young boy say "I yike peanuts dad," the more I was getting the idea that maybe I needed one too. I too have always yiked them.
But the triumph was I got out of there without a chocolate or peanute bar. Alleluia.
"Yike"----a true story
Monday night I had forgotten a key ingredient for grilling, so I rushed back to the Piggly Wiggly to get it.
In the checkout line just behind me was a young father and his son, about 4yr.old. As I was writing out the check, I heard the boy ask, "What's this dad?" His dad replied, "That's a peanut bar."
"I yike peanuts, Dad! I really yike them. Can I have one?"
"NO, son, the father replied."
Then the son said, "What's this dad?"
"That's a choclate bar."
"I yike choclate! I really, really yike chocolate. Oh can't I have one?"
"No son," he said firmly, but gently.
I was tempted, as I was possibly the only phonics trained person in the checkout line, to take a moment and go over how to pronounce the "l" sound, with the tounge pressed to the top of the mouth. It was easy to master and I know I could have changed the "yike" in short order.
On reflection, I realized how lucky this youngster was to have such a fine dad and that what was being taught here was far more than just a little consonant sound. That could be dealt with later.
Yes. The more I listened to the young boy say "I yike peanuts dad," the more I was getting the idea that maybe I needed one too. I too have always yiked them.
But the triumph was I got out of there without a chocolate or peanute bar. Alleluia.
Sunday, November 25, 2007
The Sermons of Pastor Bob Schaefer---written and audio
Pastor Bob Schaefer served as a pastor in Evansville for a brief time---however--he has recorded on audio and in print a wealth of sermons over his entire career, even including some sermons he delivered as a seminarian.
Evan though I have never met Pastor Bob Schaefer, I have enjoyed reading some of his sermons and have linked to them so that readers may review them at their leisure.
Click on the post for the sermons or find them on the right side of the blog.
Evan though I have never met Pastor Bob Schaefer, I have enjoyed reading some of his sermons and have linked to them so that readers may review them at their leisure.
Click on the post for the sermons or find them on the right side of the blog.
Saturday, November 24, 2007
OpEd: "The Past is Gone"------
OpEd; "Past results do not guarantee future performance."
If you do not remember this phrase, you are probably too young to read this post.
In virtually every mutual fund brochure or prospectus for a unit trust of whatever investment, there is the caution...... after of course the investment representative has gone over the wonderful result if..... in theoretical terms..... you had invested ....$1....at the Crash of 1929 and invested that in this particular investment....you would have had the wonderful result listed above....." and after speaking of those wonderful theoretical results, there is the caution about ...."Past Results do not guarantee future performance..."
Recently, in Evansville, in our own school projections for future school demand for facilities, whether we looked at population projection or building permit historical data, nobody wanted to read the warning----"Past results do not guarantee future performance."
Even in the Evansville City budget, the city financial consultant, Greg Johnson, from Ehlers and Associates stated that "proceeding forward with no further General Obligation debt, the future seems to be no problem with debt capacity." The problem, of course, was pointed out by Fred Juergens, who counted 5 million in dreams that were penciled in on the capital investment budget for the year around 2009.
It seems we always, as human beings, want the pro forma future not to include the unfortunate expenses of the reality of the things on the horizon.
I could go on about flashing lights from dashboards of cars re warnings, but.....I think you get the jist. As a stress reliever, it is important to manage stress and ...a little denial is good. Sometimes....the denial gets too large.
Make a note of it.
If you do not remember this phrase, you are probably too young to read this post.
In virtually every mutual fund brochure or prospectus for a unit trust of whatever investment, there is the caution...... after of course the investment representative has gone over the wonderful result if..... in theoretical terms..... you had invested ....$1....at the Crash of 1929 and invested that in this particular investment....you would have had the wonderful result listed above....." and after speaking of those wonderful theoretical results, there is the caution about ...."Past Results do not guarantee future performance..."
Recently, in Evansville, in our own school projections for future school demand for facilities, whether we looked at population projection or building permit historical data, nobody wanted to read the warning----"Past results do not guarantee future performance."
Even in the Evansville City budget, the city financial consultant, Greg Johnson, from Ehlers and Associates stated that "proceeding forward with no further General Obligation debt, the future seems to be no problem with debt capacity." The problem, of course, was pointed out by Fred Juergens, who counted 5 million in dreams that were penciled in on the capital investment budget for the year around 2009.
It seems we always, as human beings, want the pro forma future not to include the unfortunate expenses of the reality of the things on the horizon.
I could go on about flashing lights from dashboards of cars re warnings, but.....I think you get the jist. As a stress reliever, it is important to manage stress and ...a little denial is good. Sometimes....the denial gets too large.
Make a note of it.
Friday, November 23, 2007
"The Cushioned Consciousness"
One of the most striking openings for a novel that I can ever remember was the opening to "All The King's Men" by Robert Penn Warren. There is a lyrical description of a car driving along the road---a large Lincoln I recall, and as it is cruising in the darkness of the night, with the white lines flipping by on the left, on the edge or the right side are all the dead worms and road kill of the ditch that had unwisely ventured onto the road, but at the same time, the Lincoln itself is just a millisecond away from disaster of the ditch, and yet the shock absorbers cushioning the ride shield the driver from the rudeness of the ditch and the road kill below.
It is very brisk this morning. Like 15 degrees. One of the first chilly days of winter. I have been turning the heat down lower lately. Down to 50 degrees. I would really like to aim for 45 degrees, if I can develop consensus from other family members. They object at present, even though their bedrooms have warm electric heat, just the thought of a cold home gives them the willies. And of course the thought of a cold trip to the bathroom.
I think it wise for us all to turn the heat down once in a while and feel the cold so we can have a sense of the world out there. It does no one any good to have the sense of invincibility that is not appropriate---Like the frequent bicycle riders we see on Hwy 14 riding millimeters from disaster, yet being blissfuly daring in the prospect.
It is very brisk this morning. Like 15 degrees. One of the first chilly days of winter. I have been turning the heat down lower lately. Down to 50 degrees. I would really like to aim for 45 degrees, if I can develop consensus from other family members. They object at present, even though their bedrooms have warm electric heat, just the thought of a cold home gives them the willies. And of course the thought of a cold trip to the bathroom.
I think it wise for us all to turn the heat down once in a while and feel the cold so we can have a sense of the world out there. It does no one any good to have the sense of invincibility that is not appropriate---Like the frequent bicycle riders we see on Hwy 14 riding millimeters from disaster, yet being blissfuly daring in the prospect.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Sermon: Nov 21, 2007--Presentation of Mary at the Temple
Fr. Kevin: Nov. 21, 2007; On the Discipleship role and Mother role, in that order. Focus on church meditation for the day for all clergy.
Monday, November 19, 2007
Sermon of the Week: 11-18-2007: Fr. Kevin
Sermon of the Week: Fr. Kevin: On Getting Beyond the End of Times
Monday, November 12, 2007
"Thoughts on the Great Crash of 1929"
Ed.note: In honor of John Kenneth Galbraith who wrote "The Great Crash" and also in memory of Merrill Lynch that announced a huge loss due to mortgage securities this morning, I have reposted this post.)
Monday, October 22, 2007
Reflection: Thoughts on the Great Crash
OpEd: Nostalgia: "The Great Crash" by John Kenneth Galbraith
If you have read the recent book by Alan Greenspan, "Turbulence," and I have not yet completed it, although I have skimmed parts, and if you have listened to the coverage of the G7 in Europe, as well as pundits in the press, there is the spin that we just cannot do anything about "busts" of markets. The Fed is just helpless it seems when it comes to taking any action to deflate "Irrational Exuberance."
Bold action CAN be taken to rescue banks that have been packaging "mortgage securities" and of course bold action CAN be taken to rescue banking entities that are "too large to fail." That being said, other than rescuing the big guys, the politicos are helpless.
The cause of the Great Crash as explained in the book by John Kenneth Galbraith, was the severe disparity of wealth in America which had widened in the 1920's. The only time in our history that has equaled this is TODAY.
Frequently, the Big boys, as they are called, can be heard saying that this is NOT THEIR PROBLEM. It is true that one does not get to be a "big boy" through meditative exercise...however that being said, without buyers, sellers cannot prosper. In some marketing equation then, one is one's brother's business keeper. Any seller must therefore make sure the buyers can still buy.
How long could such a period of "NON BUYING" last. This is the eyeopener. In 1929, when my father turned 18, and his father died, he went off to college. Then in 1933 when he worked for a few years before going into the service---till the Korean War...the fact that the depression lasted from 1929 to 1950 meant that a whole generation of folks waded through twenty years of "NON BUYING".
The pundits have said that thank goodness we know a lot more about economics now than then.
Show me.
Monday, October 22, 2007
Reflection: Thoughts on the Great Crash
OpEd: Nostalgia: "The Great Crash" by John Kenneth Galbraith
If you have read the recent book by Alan Greenspan, "Turbulence," and I have not yet completed it, although I have skimmed parts, and if you have listened to the coverage of the G7 in Europe, as well as pundits in the press, there is the spin that we just cannot do anything about "busts" of markets. The Fed is just helpless it seems when it comes to taking any action to deflate "Irrational Exuberance."
Bold action CAN be taken to rescue banks that have been packaging "mortgage securities" and of course bold action CAN be taken to rescue banking entities that are "too large to fail." That being said, other than rescuing the big guys, the politicos are helpless.
The cause of the Great Crash as explained in the book by John Kenneth Galbraith, was the severe disparity of wealth in America which had widened in the 1920's. The only time in our history that has equaled this is TODAY.
Frequently, the Big boys, as they are called, can be heard saying that this is NOT THEIR PROBLEM. It is true that one does not get to be a "big boy" through meditative exercise...however that being said, without buyers, sellers cannot prosper. In some marketing equation then, one is one's brother's business keeper. Any seller must therefore make sure the buyers can still buy.
How long could such a period of "NON BUYING" last. This is the eyeopener. In 1929, when my father turned 18, and his father died, he went off to college. Then in 1933 when he worked for a few years before going into the service---till the Korean War...the fact that the depression lasted from 1929 to 1950 meant that a whole generation of folks waded through twenty years of "NON BUYING".
The pundits have said that thank goodness we know a lot more about economics now than then.
Show me.
"They are not coming home"---a reflection
Some years ago, when the time came for a grandparent to "downsize" to a smaller home and retire from the rat race-----that was a concept that few today can remember...with the stress and all, the memory of it has faded. In fact, the fantasy today is to die on the job. Anyway....
As we were discussing the possible house options, over a few strong black, extra sugar, in dark blue Minnesota Viking mugs, there was a very attractive, but small home near White Bear Lake...... The only problem was that it was too small for extra kids in case they came home. That was one continuing theme. "I must have a spare bedroom, just in case".....she mumbled.
Finally, we had to tell the truth.
"Mom, the kids have been gone for five years or so, and they have their own homes. They are not coming home."
There it was. A few tears. A few hugs and then the decision. The small home would do just fine.
I remember what it felt like to have to go over the reality in the face of the dream.
I get the same feeling when I hear folks talk about young college grads on entry level jobs, with high college debt---it had to be done for the investment...of course it was worth it....ya just borrow the "gap". etc, etc....---buying homes locally and beginning ....maybe just like the WWII generation did after the "Big One."
However....
No matter how I do the numbers. If regular lending standards are enforced. Unless something pretty dramatic happens to increase wage levels, and job opportunity....and unless something pretty dramatic happens to the price of homes to make them more affordable.....I come upon an unfortunate matter....
They aren't coming home.
They are not buying homes.
They are not getting married.
They are not having kids.
As we were discussing the possible house options, over a few strong black, extra sugar, in dark blue Minnesota Viking mugs, there was a very attractive, but small home near White Bear Lake...... The only problem was that it was too small for extra kids in case they came home. That was one continuing theme. "I must have a spare bedroom, just in case".....she mumbled.
Finally, we had to tell the truth.
"Mom, the kids have been gone for five years or so, and they have their own homes. They are not coming home."
There it was. A few tears. A few hugs and then the decision. The small home would do just fine.
I remember what it felt like to have to go over the reality in the face of the dream.
I get the same feeling when I hear folks talk about young college grads on entry level jobs, with high college debt---it had to be done for the investment...of course it was worth it....ya just borrow the "gap". etc, etc....---buying homes locally and beginning ....maybe just like the WWII generation did after the "Big One."
However....
No matter how I do the numbers. If regular lending standards are enforced. Unless something pretty dramatic happens to increase wage levels, and job opportunity....and unless something pretty dramatic happens to the price of homes to make them more affordable.....I come upon an unfortunate matter....
They aren't coming home.
They are not buying homes.
They are not getting married.
They are not having kids.
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Friday, November 9, 2007
"Please pay me in Pounds"-----a possibly true story
Recently I have been watching a bit too much of the Bloomberg Business News channel. It has been a wonderful experience. However...
Today, as I exited a parking ramp, I just reflected back on the news of the past week. Movie star insists that her contract be paid in British pounds. All the rage in investments were the Chinese yen investments. I wondered as I inched the car to the small booth, with my favorite attendant who always had a joke for me, whether something might have changed. After all, all I had was cash or check. What if Chinese yen was required.
Relax. Everything went ok. Cash was still accepted. Still. We might see a day when only yen or pounds are accepted. Make a note of it.
Today, as I exited a parking ramp, I just reflected back on the news of the past week. Movie star insists that her contract be paid in British pounds. All the rage in investments were the Chinese yen investments. I wondered as I inched the car to the small booth, with my favorite attendant who always had a joke for me, whether something might have changed. After all, all I had was cash or check. What if Chinese yen was required.
Relax. Everything went ok. Cash was still accepted. Still. We might see a day when only yen or pounds are accepted. Make a note of it.
Thursday, November 8, 2007
You are a winner; You have won the lottery---the reflection
I have been winning a lot of lotteries lately. Yes. I am over 60. And yes. I do live in Wisconsin. I wonder if that is the data sort. I have been getting at least two emails daily informing me of the millions of dollars that I am elegible to win or process for unnamed third parties.
It seems that folks all over the world want me to serve as the custodian for millions of dollars....just because they are too busy to handle the transaction. WOW. What a winner I am.
How about you? Are you over 60? Are you receiving lots of lottery winnings? Are not we so lucky to be WINNERS?
It seems that folks all over the world want me to serve as the custodian for millions of dollars....just because they are too busy to handle the transaction. WOW. What a winner I am.
How about you? Are you over 60? Are you receiving lots of lottery winnings? Are not we so lucky to be WINNERS?
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
Poem---"Let the Market Decide"
"Let the Market Decide"
( I found this little poem wrapped up in a mayonaisse jar, lying in the gutter near the Lake Leota Park. I have reproduced it without alteration.)
I love
my old
friend
Laissez-Faire
I call on him
whenever I
like to be
alone
whenever I
feel someone wants
some money
I love
my old
friend
Laizzie Faire
except when
I need
a grant or
two,,,,or even
three if
need
be
"Let the
Market decide"
that's the
cry
and it's
so nice I know
so well it's what
I do
or say
Just
stand
or maybe
sit,
bow
or kneel
or whatever ..just do as
I say
that's the
special
lazzai faire
way
( I found this little poem wrapped up in a mayonaisse jar, lying in the gutter near the Lake Leota Park. I have reproduced it without alteration.)
I love
my old
friend
Laissez-Faire
I call on him
whenever I
like to be
alone
whenever I
feel someone wants
some money
I love
my old
friend
Laizzie Faire
except when
I need
a grant or
two,,,,or even
three if
need
be
"Let the
Market decide"
that's the
cry
and it's
so nice I know
so well it's what
I do
or say
Just
stand
or maybe
sit,
bow
or kneel
or whatever ..just do as
I say
that's the
special
lazzai faire
way
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