This morning we received a notice that there was a flood warning with unlimited duration---or until cancelled. This has caused me to wonder, as I do occasionally, and consider alternative courses of remedy.
In law, when one is harmed, one has a right to plead in the alternative-----One can say the defendant has breached a "contract" or in the alternative, has broken a statute etc. It just means that one can plead all at once with alternative theories.
Today---with respect to weather, we just get to rely on meterologists----and yes science---and after what seems to be 30 days of rain and woe, I beg to consider alternative methods of "pleading"---bear with me on the theory.
In olden primitive times, when one wanted to have rain, one danced a dance---yes, a rain dance, and if rain came, it meant that the gods were pleased and gave rain. If on the other hand, NO rain came, then it meant that the gods were UNHAPPY with one. Usually, one had to sacrifice some cattle, goats or oxen and burn the sacrifice till the gods changed their mind.
In later religious traditions, it was assumed that some "sin" or "evil" behavior was causing the wrath.
Today I am formally giving notice of my unhappiness with traditional meterology as a weather changing exercise.
I propose a two pronged "pleading in the alternative"---
A) Those of you who are praying---need to be more specific----You need to pray that the "stationary front over Wisconsin in Evansville move to Illinois or at least a couple hundred miles. My theory here is that possibly whoever is hearing the petitions is not getting enouth specificity to take the desired corrective action.
B) In primitive times, in cultures all around the world, (cf. Mircea Eliade, The Sacred and The Profane) it is assumed that "EVIL" can have bad consequences to one directly. In short----we must have some evildoers among us that need badly to repent---and mean it this time. So---REPENT----and lets get some sunny weather. OK?
Saturday, August 25, 2007
Sunday, August 5, 2007
"The Czar"----the poem
Monday, August 28, 2006
The Czar---the poem
(Ed. note. I found this little poem on a crumpled piece of paper at a local Manpower office in a nearby city. I have faithfully reproduced it without editing.)
It would be
great
to be
bop
like sha na na
To dance on
lighted stage
to
screaming
fans and toss
t-shirts... and
whatever
It would be
great
to be great
not just near
let's make it clear
but yes
afar
To strut
proud and tall
near and.....
afar
to be a czar
to rule
if not a
town
at least a
bar
The Czar---the poem
(Ed. note. I found this little poem on a crumpled piece of paper at a local Manpower office in a nearby city. I have faithfully reproduced it without editing.)
It would be
great
to be
bop
like sha na na
To dance on
lighted stage
to
screaming
fans and toss
t-shirts... and
whatever
It would be
great
to be great
not just near
let's make it clear
but yes
afar
To strut
proud and tall
near and.....
afar
to be a czar
to rule
if not a
town
at least a
bar
"Quid Pro Quo"-----the Poem
Quid Pro Quo---the poem
I love it
when we
dance
quid pro
quo
ya know
Just toe ta
toe
I love it
when we
go
progressive
not house to
house
but entre to
entre
or
energy grant to
energy grant
I love it when
we go
right to
right
but mostly
we
go
left to
left
I love it when
we go
PAC
not dutch treat
It's like
Christmas
except no
messy
wrappings
I love when
we go
no notice
when we
slip in the dark
booth
for an early
ham and
eggs
I just
love you
PAC
You're my
everything
I love it
when we
dance
quid pro
quo
ya know
Just toe ta
toe
I love it
when we
go
progressive
not house to
house
but entre to
entre
or
energy grant to
energy grant
I love it when
we go
right to
right
but mostly
we
go
left to
left
I love it when
we go
PAC
not dutch treat
It's like
Christmas
except no
messy
wrappings
I love when
we go
no notice
when we
slip in the dark
booth
for an early
ham and
eggs
I just
love you
PAC
You're my
everything
"The Low Key Bar"----the Poem
The Low-Key Bar----the poem
I love the
low key bars--
a b-flat maybe---
that move each week
bobbing and
weaving
to the
hiphop beat
I love the
quiet
way that avoids
any question
that loves
the peace of
domination
I love the
dance of toe-to-toe
or maybe "quid pro quo---"
It's so hard
to know
when the dance
is over
or just begun
Is this
the bar?
or
that?
Have we shuffled
yet?
We have the
license-----
the bar could
be anyware
I love the
low key bars--
a b-flat maybe---
that move each week
bobbing and
weaving
to the
hiphop beat
I love the
quiet
way that avoids
any question
that loves
the peace of
domination
I love the
dance of toe-to-toe
or maybe "quid pro quo---"
It's so hard
to know
when the dance
is over
or just begun
Is this
the bar?
or
that?
Have we shuffled
yet?
We have the
license-----
the bar could
be anyware
"Conference"---a true story
Friday, July 06, 2007
"Conference"------a true Story
(Ed. note: In the midst of the MASH performance at the Evansville PAC, I thought I might post a little sketch of hospital life. The Observer was a hospital business manager in an earlier period. )
Everybody knows that it is best if the doctor looks at your injury or test results and seems very bored with it----it probably is "NORMAL." That is good for you.
The very worst thing is when you hear those words, " HMMMMM. This is very I N T E R E S T I N G." Always be wary when you hear that. That normally means that the doctor does not know what is wrong or that he/she knows and it might be bad or complicated.
If it is complicated, the regular doctor might refer you to a specialist.
There is someting else though, not called a "consult" but a "conference". I thought you might be interested.
This is a very complicated case where ....lets just say this is a cardiac case.....your cardiologist would ask others to review the current tests and go over in conference what course of care should be pursued. Techs are also invited to attend. These meetings ususally occur in the very early morning and are part of continuing education for all involved.
It might also surprise you that there are differences of opinion as to what course to pursue in various cases. Yes. Even heated discussion. At the end of the conference they try to reach a consensus on what is best for the patient. After all ------- a life is on the line. Maybe even yours.
I mention this little story....because in public life....and in planning decisions...it is o.k. to take a little time out....for a "conference"----and not rush things for an agenda or two...and just put the patient first....or the community needs first as the case may be.
Posted by Evansville Observer at 12:25 PM
"Conference"------a true Story
(Ed. note: In the midst of the MASH performance at the Evansville PAC, I thought I might post a little sketch of hospital life. The Observer was a hospital business manager in an earlier period. )
Everybody knows that it is best if the doctor looks at your injury or test results and seems very bored with it----it probably is "NORMAL." That is good for you.
The very worst thing is when you hear those words, " HMMMMM. This is very I N T E R E S T I N G." Always be wary when you hear that. That normally means that the doctor does not know what is wrong or that he/she knows and it might be bad or complicated.
If it is complicated, the regular doctor might refer you to a specialist.
There is someting else though, not called a "consult" but a "conference". I thought you might be interested.
This is a very complicated case where ....lets just say this is a cardiac case.....your cardiologist would ask others to review the current tests and go over in conference what course of care should be pursued. Techs are also invited to attend. These meetings ususally occur in the very early morning and are part of continuing education for all involved.
It might also surprise you that there are differences of opinion as to what course to pursue in various cases. Yes. Even heated discussion. At the end of the conference they try to reach a consensus on what is best for the patient. After all ------- a life is on the line. Maybe even yours.
I mention this little story....because in public life....and in planning decisions...it is o.k. to take a little time out....for a "conference"----and not rush things for an agenda or two...and just put the patient first....or the community needs first as the case may be.
Posted by Evansville Observer at 12:25 PM
Saturday, August 4, 2007
"Getting to Yes"
Nostalgia: Economic Development: "Getting to Yes." (May 16, 2006)
Tuesday, May 16, 2006
Getting to "Yes." or; What the case of the silent juror in the Mousauai trial tells us; Or, a short primer in economic development negotiation
One of the classic texts in any salesman's library is the book titled, "Getting to Yes." It has been 20 years or so since I have read it, but I will go over the essentials.
In order to be an effective salesman, one has to visualize where the prospect is coming from----- what the needs are. Only once all this has been listened to, can one proceed to close the sale.
However, as one might theorize, in modern life, we have become so rushed, and in fact very resistant to listening to anything at all of others' opinions on most subjects (think of the last time you have changed your mind on anything) one might debate that in fact the whole process of effective "contracts" between folks has seriously broken down. We have become shippers of 'widgets" take em or leave em. When broken just discard and replace.
Buyer says "This is what I am looking for." Seller says, "This is what I have to sell take it or leave it." End of discussion.
In economic development, governments say, "We need a project where the taxpayer will benefit through tax increment and in a situation where government assistance is the key to going foreward, rather than simply a handout in the normal course of business. Developers say, " We want assistance for all situations or we won't do the deal."
As is so comprehensively covered in the "Audible Althouse #49" in the previous post, the case of the silent juror in the Mousauii terror case has some instruction to governments on how to effectively negotiate in situations such as this. To recap---there were 11 jurors that wanted to execute and one holdout juror. In secret voting the 1 holdout juror refused to identify him/herself. After several ballots, of 11-1, the jurors were confronted with a dilema. What to do. So, absent identification of the lone dissenter, they began to "imagine" what the arguments of the other side were. After several days of this, they agreed to a life sentence.
In negotiation, there is what I call the "Jersey hang up" strategy. If a person that is negotiating with you refuses to listen to what your needs are, simply hang up. No discussion. It creates the "Song of Silence" and in that silence the other party has to review. Eventually, the listening begins or nothing happens. Either is ok.
(ed. note. Click on the post for the full Audible Althouse
L
Tuesday, May 16, 2006
Getting to "Yes." or; What the case of the silent juror in the Mousauai trial tells us; Or, a short primer in economic development negotiation
One of the classic texts in any salesman's library is the book titled, "Getting to Yes." It has been 20 years or so since I have read it, but I will go over the essentials.
In order to be an effective salesman, one has to visualize where the prospect is coming from----- what the needs are. Only once all this has been listened to, can one proceed to close the sale.
However, as one might theorize, in modern life, we have become so rushed, and in fact very resistant to listening to anything at all of others' opinions on most subjects (think of the last time you have changed your mind on anything) one might debate that in fact the whole process of effective "contracts" between folks has seriously broken down. We have become shippers of 'widgets" take em or leave em. When broken just discard and replace.
Buyer says "This is what I am looking for." Seller says, "This is what I have to sell take it or leave it." End of discussion.
In economic development, governments say, "We need a project where the taxpayer will benefit through tax increment and in a situation where government assistance is the key to going foreward, rather than simply a handout in the normal course of business. Developers say, " We want assistance for all situations or we won't do the deal."
As is so comprehensively covered in the "Audible Althouse #49" in the previous post, the case of the silent juror in the Mousauii terror case has some instruction to governments on how to effectively negotiate in situations such as this. To recap---there were 11 jurors that wanted to execute and one holdout juror. In secret voting the 1 holdout juror refused to identify him/herself. After several ballots, of 11-1, the jurors were confronted with a dilema. What to do. So, absent identification of the lone dissenter, they began to "imagine" what the arguments of the other side were. After several days of this, they agreed to a life sentence.
In negotiation, there is what I call the "Jersey hang up" strategy. If a person that is negotiating with you refuses to listen to what your needs are, simply hang up. No discussion. It creates the "Song of Silence" and in that silence the other party has to review. Eventually, the listening begins or nothing happens. Either is ok.
(ed. note. Click on the post for the full Audible Althouse
L
"The Magic of Double Down"
Friday, August 03, 2007
Nostalgia: The Magic of "Double-Down"----In Gambling...In Life ......
(Ed.note: This piece was written on a Tandy 1000 almost 20 years ago. Nothing like a declining stock market to bring back the nostalgia. )
Some years ago, in high school, right after Algebra II was completed in the semester, we had a time to study probability. Or more specifically, studied how probability is expressed in gambling and algebra.
The very first class, I remember the instructor asking whether if one rolled a dice, and had lost, whether the odds of winning on the second roll were increased. Most of the kids in the room, including myself, felt that the odds got better with each passing loss. What a blow to learn that it was not so.
Over the years, beginning in the 1960's, I remember some whispered discussions within our family on whether, even though Control Data stock had been falling, whether one should "double down" to lock in the magical "basis" and thus be prepared for a large win if and when-- and of course it must-- go higher ---eventually-- if one lived long enough.
What we learned in the 60's, it seems has to be learned all over again each decade. I know that even though I learned it well, I promptly forgot it in a moment of optimism later.
I even went further. It was not good enough to "double down"----the numbers did not work out fast enough. One had to be prepared to "Triple Down" in cases where the bold could win. Yes. That theory had flaws too.
The problem. In declining markets, in the 60's, 70's, 80's, 90's and on, if a stock goes to ZERO, nothing works. And indeed, if funds go down, and even seemingly slowly, diversification alone does not work....at least for stocks. Make a note of it.
0 comments:
Nostalgia: The Magic of "Double-Down"----In Gambling...In Life ......
(Ed.note: This piece was written on a Tandy 1000 almost 20 years ago. Nothing like a declining stock market to bring back the nostalgia. )
Some years ago, in high school, right after Algebra II was completed in the semester, we had a time to study probability. Or more specifically, studied how probability is expressed in gambling and algebra.
The very first class, I remember the instructor asking whether if one rolled a dice, and had lost, whether the odds of winning on the second roll were increased. Most of the kids in the room, including myself, felt that the odds got better with each passing loss. What a blow to learn that it was not so.
Over the years, beginning in the 1960's, I remember some whispered discussions within our family on whether, even though Control Data stock had been falling, whether one should "double down" to lock in the magical "basis" and thus be prepared for a large win if and when-- and of course it must-- go higher ---eventually-- if one lived long enough.
What we learned in the 60's, it seems has to be learned all over again each decade. I know that even though I learned it well, I promptly forgot it in a moment of optimism later.
I even went further. It was not good enough to "double down"----the numbers did not work out fast enough. One had to be prepared to "Triple Down" in cases where the bold could win. Yes. That theory had flaws too.
The problem. In declining markets, in the 60's, 70's, 80's, 90's and on, if a stock goes to ZERO, nothing works. And indeed, if funds go down, and even seemingly slowly, diversification alone does not work....at least for stocks. Make a note of it.
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