(Ed.note: I found this little poem all crumpled up next to a local pub near the Metrodome in downtown Minneapolis right after the Green Bay Packers beat the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. Enjoy.)
when I say
I love
you
I want it to mean
more
than I love
skippy peanut butter
I want it to be
more
than just the
rush
of a mocha with
double sugar and
whipped
cream
When I say I
love you
I want it to be
more
than the normal
addiction
more than the normal
collection
of things I pursue
When I say I
love you
I mean it must
be really
serious
like
heavy duty
sports apparel
not Viking stuff
but
Packer gear
Sunday, September 30, 2007
Monday, September 24, 2007
Past Results Do Not Guarantee
Dateline: Anytown USA: OpEd: Reflection: Past Results do not guarantee future performance."
OpEd; "Past results do not guarantee future performance."
If you do not remember this phrase, you are probably too young to read this post.
In virtually every mutual fund brochure or prospectus for a unit trust of whatever investment, there is the caution...... after of course the investment representative has gone over the wonderful result if..... in theoretical terms..... you had invested ....$1....at the Crash of 1929 and invested that in this particular investment....you would have had the wonderful result listed above....." and after speaking of those wonderful theoretical results, there is the caution about ...."Past Results do not guarantee future performance..."
Recently, in Anytown, USA, in our own school projections for future school demand for facilities, whether we looked at population projection or building permit historical data, nobody wanted to read the warning----"Past results do not guarantee future performance."
Even in the Anytown City budget, the city financial consultant, stated that "proceeding forward with no further General Obligation debt, the future seems to be no problem with debt capacity." The problem, of course------- 5 million in dreams that were penciled in on the capital investment budget for the year around 2009.
It seems we always, as human beings, want the pro forma future not to include the unfortunate expenses of the reality of the things on the horizon.
Saturday, September 22, 2007
Careers---the game; Careers---the life.
Years ago, some families got together every Friday for game night....board games. Our favorite game was "Careers". In fact, we liked to make the game last longer so doubled the points needed to win...and we even formed teams who tried to stop the other team from winning in agressive style. It added a new sense of agressiveness to the game----and yes teams would intentionally place their opponent on the park bench.
The game "Careers" was such an oldie that we always seemed to lose some pieces, so I was on the lookout at thrift stores for replacement parts. Quickly I found out that there were many versions. In the original version, it offered the career of farming, which was associated with "Hearts". One made the choice in the game as in life, what combination of money, fame, happiness etc that one wanted to define victory, and then the objective of each player was to gain victory by ones own definition. That was the part I always liked about the game.
The problem was.....and still is.....that the definition of the game of careers....is changing. Just as the game has changed, so also has life. In fact, I think the changes became so extensive and fast that the game no longer may be available.
The game "Careers" was such an oldie that we always seemed to lose some pieces, so I was on the lookout at thrift stores for replacement parts. Quickly I found out that there were many versions. In the original version, it offered the career of farming, which was associated with "Hearts". One made the choice in the game as in life, what combination of money, fame, happiness etc that one wanted to define victory, and then the objective of each player was to gain victory by ones own definition. That was the part I always liked about the game.
The problem was.....and still is.....that the definition of the game of careers....is changing. Just as the game has changed, so also has life. In fact, I think the changes became so extensive and fast that the game no longer may be available.
During Times of Crisis----Drink Ice Water
It was the stock market crash of 1987. On the telephone squack box the senior brokers from New York were advising the younger brokers not to jump----in our office, as I looked around I saw all the older brokers sipping ice water. It was no time for nerves now. Use lots of ice. Stay cool.
The last time I had seen such ice sipping was in the room of a patient close to death who could only sip ice water.
So---sip ice water. Stay cool. And pray that when the opportunity for decisive action comes you will have the cool to make the clear headed decision.
The last time I had seen such ice sipping was in the room of a patient close to death who could only sip ice water.
So---sip ice water. Stay cool. And pray that when the opportunity for decisive action comes you will have the cool to make the clear headed decision.
"You get everything your write Down"
There is a rule that I heard at a seminar years ago that "You get everything you write down." I have found this to be true.
The reality is that people just write down a very few things and get a very few things. To really focus on what one wants at the center is difficult.
Then step TWO with that list: PERSIST:
The reality is that normally folks give it the "old college TRY". Try, Try, Try till their PEERS are satisfied. However.....it is something again to give it a lifetime of persistence, and few obstacles can withstand that kind of focus. It takes grit and faith. Pray for both.
Treasure the stories in your family of persistence. In our family there are classic stories of persistence---the story of Mark learning to ride the bicycle. Or Mark learning to play baseball....with artificial legs. As Mark said at his dad's funeral----He never told me I could not do it."
The reality is that people just write down a very few things and get a very few things. To really focus on what one wants at the center is difficult.
Then step TWO with that list: PERSIST:
The reality is that normally folks give it the "old college TRY". Try, Try, Try till their PEERS are satisfied. However.....it is something again to give it a lifetime of persistence, and few obstacles can withstand that kind of focus. It takes grit and faith. Pray for both.
Treasure the stories in your family of persistence. In our family there are classic stories of persistence---the story of Mark learning to ride the bicycle. Or Mark learning to play baseball....with artificial legs. As Mark said at his dad's funeral----He never told me I could not do it."
Don Sheehan Corner: After 30, you are too old to blame your parents
One of the favorite phrases of Don Sheehan was "Get Over it."
He used to say that in talking with business owners he often heard them saying things that blamed their parents in some way or other for their situation or value structure.
"NO, NO" he used to say. "When you are 30--vow never to do this again. Simply review each situation and then decide for yourself as an adult. And take responsibility for your views without reference to the past. ......... It is over. Get Over It!!!!!
He used to say that in talking with business owners he often heard them saying things that blamed their parents in some way or other for their situation or value structure.
"NO, NO" he used to say. "When you are 30--vow never to do this again. Simply review each situation and then decide for yourself as an adult. And take responsibility for your views without reference to the past. ......... It is over. Get Over It!!!!!
Risky Behavior---a sidenote
One of the observations I had many years ago while working as a financial advisor, is that sometimes I saw quite young folks who saw themselves as quite the gambler types---and while at a young age, took an interest in how many worked, which was good.....they began by going to the edge with risky investments...and other risky behavior....... that even a riverboat gambler would have avoided.
I surmised that this was a transference of sorts---after all...this was the exact age that risks in one's education would normally be taken...with gutsy investment in courses and apprenticeships to learn the tools of the trade.
For those who have been through the crashes of the market, there is a certain quiet that comes with the volatility. The old zen saying, "Those who say, do not know; those who know do not say, " really applies here.
There is a real calm in the stepping up to the plate calmly in a risk situation. The loud bragging gambler behavior is not seen---except by the wannabees.
Make a note of it.
I surmised that this was a transference of sorts---after all...this was the exact age that risks in one's education would normally be taken...with gutsy investment in courses and apprenticeships to learn the tools of the trade.
For those who have been through the crashes of the market, there is a certain quiet that comes with the volatility. The old zen saying, "Those who say, do not know; those who know do not say, " really applies here.
There is a real calm in the stepping up to the plate calmly in a risk situation. The loud bragging gambler behavior is not seen---except by the wannabees.
Make a note of it.
Where does your fist go when you open your hand?
Where does your fist go when you open your hand? That is one of my all time favorite Zen sayings. I love to ask my young daughter Molly this and then exclaim, "It's just magic."
It is a curious fact of the 1990's that the current generation aborts their young, and ....then wonders where the children went to pay for their social security.
The fist....and the hand....have always spoken to me that the magic of life is right in front of your eyes. Love every minute of it....and don't get too confused by the categories or semantics.
It is a curious fact of the 1990's that the current generation aborts their young, and ....then wonders where the children went to pay for their social security.
The fist....and the hand....have always spoken to me that the magic of life is right in front of your eyes. Love every minute of it....and don't get too confused by the categories or semantics.
Friday, September 21, 2007
"On Jawboning"--- effective method, or cruel Hoax?
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
OpEd: "Jawboning"---- effective method or cruel hoax
Sometimes when policy makers do not want to take concrete steps to solve problems, they indulge in an exercise called "jawboning." This "jawboning" has risen to a high art in financial and political circles, whether you are the Federal Reserve Chairman or the President of the US or whomever.
Last weekend I went to Wisconsin Dells to join my editor brother in a doubles game of tennis with two younger...and faster tennis players. My bro and I only had age and .....whatever wisdom we called "experience" to work with. Speed, vision and deft of hand has been slipping for some time. O.K. You understand the situation we were in.
It was a furious paced game with lots of net play. Just the kind of game Denis and I have always loved. At a critical point, Denis hit from the baseline a direct ball toward the opposing net player, who hit it with his backhand, and popped a weak lob in the air, which I smashed for a winner.....one of the few of the day for me.
As I walked to the other side of the net, celebrating, I cheered my bro on and said, "Let's go big guy.....they may be losing their arm strength."
On the next play, the opponent smashed the ball at me and although I was ready for it, it came on the backhand and I blew the shot. The "Jawboning" had worked. I had the shot I wanted....just not the skill needed.
So------"Jawboning" as a rule of thumb is always the mark of weakness.
Think of President Bush "jawboning" the mortgage industry to "work with" the holders of the mortgages that are going to be set to new higher interest rates---over a million of them this coming year. He has the power to take effective administrative action to modify the rules of handling, but instead uses "jawboning." That indicates weakness and .....portends trouble.
"Jawboning" in the mortgage case is his way of distancing himself from the problem---a problem that he cannot distance himself from since the Treasury supervises or.....should have supervised....the industry.
In fact.....over the past 30 years whether it has been the savings and loan industry in the 80's, the bond fiasco, the stock market crash, the techno bubble, or the current situation---- money.....special interest campaign money has impaired the proper functioning of our government in the financial sector.
For years, the government has been trying to weaken the barrier between banks and the stock brokerage industry---the Glass Stiegel Act of 1933. To the extent that they have weakened this barrier, banks too have become vulnerable to the downdraft of bundled mortgage products they are financially tied to.
So---the problem: Right when we need effective decisive action from our government we get just "jawboning." Kinda like we got with Hurrican Katrina.
Today the stock market seems to be responding to the "jawboning."----and seeing right though it. That is how I see it.
Stay tuned.
OpEd: "Jawboning"---- effective method or cruel hoax
Sometimes when policy makers do not want to take concrete steps to solve problems, they indulge in an exercise called "jawboning." This "jawboning" has risen to a high art in financial and political circles, whether you are the Federal Reserve Chairman or the President of the US or whomever.
Last weekend I went to Wisconsin Dells to join my editor brother in a doubles game of tennis with two younger...and faster tennis players. My bro and I only had age and .....whatever wisdom we called "experience" to work with. Speed, vision and deft of hand has been slipping for some time. O.K. You understand the situation we were in.
It was a furious paced game with lots of net play. Just the kind of game Denis and I have always loved. At a critical point, Denis hit from the baseline a direct ball toward the opposing net player, who hit it with his backhand, and popped a weak lob in the air, which I smashed for a winner.....one of the few of the day for me.
As I walked to the other side of the net, celebrating, I cheered my bro on and said, "Let's go big guy.....they may be losing their arm strength."
On the next play, the opponent smashed the ball at me and although I was ready for it, it came on the backhand and I blew the shot. The "Jawboning" had worked. I had the shot I wanted....just not the skill needed.
So------"Jawboning" as a rule of thumb is always the mark of weakness.
Think of President Bush "jawboning" the mortgage industry to "work with" the holders of the mortgages that are going to be set to new higher interest rates---over a million of them this coming year. He has the power to take effective administrative action to modify the rules of handling, but instead uses "jawboning." That indicates weakness and .....portends trouble.
"Jawboning" in the mortgage case is his way of distancing himself from the problem---a problem that he cannot distance himself from since the Treasury supervises or.....should have supervised....the industry.
In fact.....over the past 30 years whether it has been the savings and loan industry in the 80's, the bond fiasco, the stock market crash, the techno bubble, or the current situation---- money.....special interest campaign money has impaired the proper functioning of our government in the financial sector.
For years, the government has been trying to weaken the barrier between banks and the stock brokerage industry---the Glass Stiegel Act of 1933. To the extent that they have weakened this barrier, banks too have become vulnerable to the downdraft of bundled mortgage products they are financially tied to.
So---the problem: Right when we need effective decisive action from our government we get just "jawboning." Kinda like we got with Hurrican Katrina.
Today the stock market seems to be responding to the "jawboning."----and seeing right though it. That is how I see it.
Stay tuned.
"On To Do Lists; On Purpose: The difference
Friday, July 20, 2007
"To Do Lists"-----are ----not purpose
Over 20 years ago, I had the pleasure of attending a couple of seminars by Phil Laut in St. Paul. He had just published, 'Money is My Friend" and was working on his second book and was touring the country with the material for it.
At the beginning of the seminar, he made a startling statement. He opened by saying to the crowd, "How many of you have a "To Do List?" Every hand in the room went up. It was pretty impressive.
Then he paused and asked ," How many of you have a statement of your purpose?" Not one hand went up.
"Well, he went on. Tonight we are going to talk about purpose. Purpose is different from a "To List." In fact, if all you have is a "To Do" list it would be better that you just stayed in bed each morning and waited till you had one. It is that important.
"Purpose," he went on, "puts intensity into the order of your life. It gives meaning to the tasks you perform."
At the end of this month, the Evansville School Board will meet in a four hour session to hammer out more than just a 'To Do" List, but a strategy for Board Development and Goals for the upcoming school year. They may hire a special "facilitator" to handle the vigorous discussion.
Stay tuned.
It should be interesting.
"To Do Lists"-----are ----not purpose
Over 20 years ago, I had the pleasure of attending a couple of seminars by Phil Laut in St. Paul. He had just published, 'Money is My Friend" and was working on his second book and was touring the country with the material for it.
At the beginning of the seminar, he made a startling statement. He opened by saying to the crowd, "How many of you have a "To Do List?" Every hand in the room went up. It was pretty impressive.
Then he paused and asked ," How many of you have a statement of your purpose?" Not one hand went up.
"Well, he went on. Tonight we are going to talk about purpose. Purpose is different from a "To List." In fact, if all you have is a "To Do" list it would be better that you just stayed in bed each morning and waited till you had one. It is that important.
"Purpose," he went on, "puts intensity into the order of your life. It gives meaning to the tasks you perform."
At the end of this month, the Evansville School Board will meet in a four hour session to hammer out more than just a 'To Do" List, but a strategy for Board Development and Goals for the upcoming school year. They may hire a special "facilitator" to handle the vigorous discussion.
Stay tuned.
It should be interesting.
Memories of John Berryman, Poet.
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Memories of John Berryman: His Thoughts on Achievement; Ordeal, Sports Talk and more
(Ed.note; John Berryman was an associate professor at the University of Minnesota. In 1974 he committed suicide by jumping off the bridge at the Mississippi. His most famous work was " 77 Dream Songs."
One of the amazing classes that I had the chance to take as a student was a course by John Berryman, who was a well known poet, and assistant professor at the University of Minnesota.
He was already famous. And larger than life. Though he appeared to be just a fairly old guy with a somewhat white beard that lectured in dishevled suits---what he said---even if it was a little slurred at times---probably from a hard night on the town----was worth straining to hear.
In summary, it was a little like listening to "Sports Talk"-------- but about poetry and yes novels. He would talk about a poem, and the author, and then talk about the time he last saw the author, and in fact he knew some details about what the poem was talking about with respect to the authors life.
If you click on the post, there is an interview with John Berryman that captures his style, in an interview, and yes in answering questions from students.
Memories of John Berryman: His Thoughts on Achievement; Ordeal, Sports Talk and more
(Ed.note; John Berryman was an associate professor at the University of Minnesota. In 1974 he committed suicide by jumping off the bridge at the Mississippi. His most famous work was " 77 Dream Songs."
One of the amazing classes that I had the chance to take as a student was a course by John Berryman, who was a well known poet, and assistant professor at the University of Minnesota.
He was already famous. And larger than life. Though he appeared to be just a fairly old guy with a somewhat white beard that lectured in dishevled suits---what he said---even if it was a little slurred at times---probably from a hard night on the town----was worth straining to hear.
In summary, it was a little like listening to "Sports Talk"-------- but about poetry and yes novels. He would talk about a poem, and the author, and then talk about the time he last saw the author, and in fact he knew some details about what the poem was talking about with respect to the authors life.
If you click on the post, there is an interview with John Berryman that captures his style, in an interview, and yes in answering questions from students.
The Magic of "Double-Down"---in Gambling...In Life.....
Nostalgia: The Magic of "Double-Down"----In Gambling...In Life ......
(Ed.note: This piece was written on a Tandy 1000 almost 20 years ago. Nothing like a declining stock market to bring back the nostalgia. )
Some years ago, in high school, right after Algebra II was completed in the semester, we had a time to study probability. Or more specifically, studied how probability is expressed in gambling and algebra.
The very first class, I remember the instructor asking whether if one rolled a dice, and had lost, whether the odds of winning on the second roll were increased. Most of the kids in the room, including myself, felt that the odds got better with each passing loss. What a blow to learn that it was not so.
Over the years, beginning in the 1960's, I remember some whispered discussions within our family on whether, even though Control Data stock had been falling, whether one should "double down" to lock in the magical "basis" and thus be prepared for a large win if and when-- and of course it must-- go higher ---eventually-- if one lived long enough.
What we learned in the 60's, it seems has to be learned all over again each decade. I know that even though I learned it well, I promptly forgot it in a moment of optimism later.
I even went further. It was not good enough to "double down"----the numbers did not work out fast enough. One had to be prepared to "Triple Down" in cases where the bold could win. Yes. That theory had flaws too.
The problem. In declining markets, in the 60's, 70's, 80's, 90's and on, if a stock goes to ZERO, nothing works. And indeed, if funds go down, and even seemingly slowly, diversification alone does not work....at least for stocks. Make a note of it.
Posted by Evansville Observer at 9:41 AM
0 comments:
(Ed.note: This piece was written on a Tandy 1000 almost 20 years ago. Nothing like a declining stock market to bring back the nostalgia. )
Some years ago, in high school, right after Algebra II was completed in the semester, we had a time to study probability. Or more specifically, studied how probability is expressed in gambling and algebra.
The very first class, I remember the instructor asking whether if one rolled a dice, and had lost, whether the odds of winning on the second roll were increased. Most of the kids in the room, including myself, felt that the odds got better with each passing loss. What a blow to learn that it was not so.
Over the years, beginning in the 1960's, I remember some whispered discussions within our family on whether, even though Control Data stock had been falling, whether one should "double down" to lock in the magical "basis" and thus be prepared for a large win if and when-- and of course it must-- go higher ---eventually-- if one lived long enough.
What we learned in the 60's, it seems has to be learned all over again each decade. I know that even though I learned it well, I promptly forgot it in a moment of optimism later.
I even went further. It was not good enough to "double down"----the numbers did not work out fast enough. One had to be prepared to "Triple Down" in cases where the bold could win. Yes. That theory had flaws too.
The problem. In declining markets, in the 60's, 70's, 80's, 90's and on, if a stock goes to ZERO, nothing works. And indeed, if funds go down, and even seemingly slowly, diversification alone does not work....at least for stocks. Make a note of it.
Posted by Evansville Observer at 9:41 AM
0 comments:
Thursday, September 6, 2007
"The Cookies"---- a true story
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
"The Cookies"----- a true story
Years ago, one of my friends was the savings manager of the downtown Minneapolis Minnesota Federal. Minnesota Federal was a very staid old line savings institution. The two benefits of this job were the Athletic Club membership he was given to entertain depositors and woo new deposits. The other duty was to manage the depositors on "cookie day" each week. I think it was Tuesday.
All customers were treated to cookies and coffee. It was great to stop off while switching busses and get a cup of coffee and one of those great chocolate chip cookies. I suppose I could have felt uncomfortable standing around chatting with the older folks about stuff----actually I loved it cause they always had some great stories, and besides....the cookies were great.
Depositors who created a new account for $5000 or more, or added $5000 to an existing account got a wonderful set of stainless steel silverware. I can see it now in the classic wooden case. How elegant. Someday I thought. Someday I will get some of that silverware.
One day I stopped in and there was NOTHING. What a shock. What a letdown feeling!! It had been a terrible winter day battling traffic on 35W and ...well...I really was in the mood for some coffee....and the cookies. What a blow!!
I went right over to my friend, Mike, and asked, "What the heck is the deal, Mike? How could you destroy such a sacred tradition like the cookies?"
Mike just smiled. Then he went on: "The stainless steel silverware was a reward for those folks that deposited NEW money. The plain truth is that we had a large number of present customers that threatened to take their $5000 out of the bank if they did not get the silverware. It became a blackmail game. The incentive just did not work. So---we discontinued it, along with the coffee and cookies."
Over the years I have thought a lot about that incident. Things have changed. Yes I have learned how to make my own coffee.
Mike taught me a wonderful lesson that morning. A lesson about Economic Development. A lesson about sales. Economic Development is about going out and getting the NEW money---not about being blackmailed by the old. The stainless silver cookware goes to the NEW.
Thanks, Mike.
"The Cookies"----- a true story
Years ago, one of my friends was the savings manager of the downtown Minneapolis Minnesota Federal. Minnesota Federal was a very staid old line savings institution. The two benefits of this job were the Athletic Club membership he was given to entertain depositors and woo new deposits. The other duty was to manage the depositors on "cookie day" each week. I think it was Tuesday.
All customers were treated to cookies and coffee. It was great to stop off while switching busses and get a cup of coffee and one of those great chocolate chip cookies. I suppose I could have felt uncomfortable standing around chatting with the older folks about stuff----actually I loved it cause they always had some great stories, and besides....the cookies were great.
Depositors who created a new account for $5000 or more, or added $5000 to an existing account got a wonderful set of stainless steel silverware. I can see it now in the classic wooden case. How elegant. Someday I thought. Someday I will get some of that silverware.
One day I stopped in and there was NOTHING. What a shock. What a letdown feeling!! It had been a terrible winter day battling traffic on 35W and ...well...I really was in the mood for some coffee....and the cookies. What a blow!!
I went right over to my friend, Mike, and asked, "What the heck is the deal, Mike? How could you destroy such a sacred tradition like the cookies?"
Mike just smiled. Then he went on: "The stainless steel silverware was a reward for those folks that deposited NEW money. The plain truth is that we had a large number of present customers that threatened to take their $5000 out of the bank if they did not get the silverware. It became a blackmail game. The incentive just did not work. So---we discontinued it, along with the coffee and cookies."
Over the years I have thought a lot about that incident. Things have changed. Yes I have learned how to make my own coffee.
Mike taught me a wonderful lesson that morning. A lesson about Economic Development. A lesson about sales. Economic Development is about going out and getting the NEW money---not about being blackmailed by the old. The stainless silver cookware goes to the NEW.
Thanks, Mike.
Saturday, August 25, 2007
Relection; The Flood---or "Repent....Repent NOW"
This morning we received a notice that there was a flood warning with unlimited duration---or until cancelled. This has caused me to wonder, as I do occasionally, and consider alternative courses of remedy.
In law, when one is harmed, one has a right to plead in the alternative-----One can say the defendant has breached a "contract" or in the alternative, has broken a statute etc. It just means that one can plead all at once with alternative theories.
Today---with respect to weather, we just get to rely on meterologists----and yes science---and after what seems to be 30 days of rain and woe, I beg to consider alternative methods of "pleading"---bear with me on the theory.
In olden primitive times, when one wanted to have rain, one danced a dance---yes, a rain dance, and if rain came, it meant that the gods were pleased and gave rain. If on the other hand, NO rain came, then it meant that the gods were UNHAPPY with one. Usually, one had to sacrifice some cattle, goats or oxen and burn the sacrifice till the gods changed their mind.
In later religious traditions, it was assumed that some "sin" or "evil" behavior was causing the wrath.
Today I am formally giving notice of my unhappiness with traditional meterology as a weather changing exercise.
I propose a two pronged "pleading in the alternative"---
A) Those of you who are praying---need to be more specific----You need to pray that the "stationary front over Wisconsin in Evansville move to Illinois or at least a couple hundred miles. My theory here is that possibly whoever is hearing the petitions is not getting enouth specificity to take the desired corrective action.
B) In primitive times, in cultures all around the world, (cf. Mircea Eliade, The Sacred and The Profane) it is assumed that "EVIL" can have bad consequences to one directly. In short----we must have some evildoers among us that need badly to repent---and mean it this time. So---REPENT----and lets get some sunny weather. OK?
In law, when one is harmed, one has a right to plead in the alternative-----One can say the defendant has breached a "contract" or in the alternative, has broken a statute etc. It just means that one can plead all at once with alternative theories.
Today---with respect to weather, we just get to rely on meterologists----and yes science---and after what seems to be 30 days of rain and woe, I beg to consider alternative methods of "pleading"---bear with me on the theory.
In olden primitive times, when one wanted to have rain, one danced a dance---yes, a rain dance, and if rain came, it meant that the gods were pleased and gave rain. If on the other hand, NO rain came, then it meant that the gods were UNHAPPY with one. Usually, one had to sacrifice some cattle, goats or oxen and burn the sacrifice till the gods changed their mind.
In later religious traditions, it was assumed that some "sin" or "evil" behavior was causing the wrath.
Today I am formally giving notice of my unhappiness with traditional meterology as a weather changing exercise.
I propose a two pronged "pleading in the alternative"---
A) Those of you who are praying---need to be more specific----You need to pray that the "stationary front over Wisconsin in Evansville move to Illinois or at least a couple hundred miles. My theory here is that possibly whoever is hearing the petitions is not getting enouth specificity to take the desired corrective action.
B) In primitive times, in cultures all around the world, (cf. Mircea Eliade, The Sacred and The Profane) it is assumed that "EVIL" can have bad consequences to one directly. In short----we must have some evildoers among us that need badly to repent---and mean it this time. So---REPENT----and lets get some sunny weather. OK?
Sunday, August 5, 2007
"The Czar"----the poem
Monday, August 28, 2006
The Czar---the poem
(Ed. note. I found this little poem on a crumpled piece of paper at a local Manpower office in a nearby city. I have faithfully reproduced it without editing.)
It would be
great
to be
bop
like sha na na
To dance on
lighted stage
to
screaming
fans and toss
t-shirts... and
whatever
It would be
great
to be great
not just near
let's make it clear
but yes
afar
To strut
proud and tall
near and.....
afar
to be a czar
to rule
if not a
town
at least a
bar
The Czar---the poem
(Ed. note. I found this little poem on a crumpled piece of paper at a local Manpower office in a nearby city. I have faithfully reproduced it without editing.)
It would be
great
to be
bop
like sha na na
To dance on
lighted stage
to
screaming
fans and toss
t-shirts... and
whatever
It would be
great
to be great
not just near
let's make it clear
but yes
afar
To strut
proud and tall
near and.....
afar
to be a czar
to rule
if not a
town
at least a
bar
"Quid Pro Quo"-----the Poem
Quid Pro Quo---the poem
I love it
when we
dance
quid pro
quo
ya know
Just toe ta
toe
I love it
when we
go
progressive
not house to
house
but entre to
entre
or
energy grant to
energy grant
I love it when
we go
right to
right
but mostly
we
go
left to
left
I love it when
we go
PAC
not dutch treat
It's like
Christmas
except no
messy
wrappings
I love when
we go
no notice
when we
slip in the dark
booth
for an early
ham and
eggs
I just
love you
PAC
You're my
everything
I love it
when we
dance
quid pro
quo
ya know
Just toe ta
toe
I love it
when we
go
progressive
not house to
house
but entre to
entre
or
energy grant to
energy grant
I love it when
we go
right to
right
but mostly
we
go
left to
left
I love it when
we go
PAC
not dutch treat
It's like
Christmas
except no
messy
wrappings
I love when
we go
no notice
when we
slip in the dark
booth
for an early
ham and
eggs
I just
love you
PAC
You're my
everything
"The Low Key Bar"----the Poem
The Low-Key Bar----the poem
I love the
low key bars--
a b-flat maybe---
that move each week
bobbing and
weaving
to the
hiphop beat
I love the
quiet
way that avoids
any question
that loves
the peace of
domination
I love the
dance of toe-to-toe
or maybe "quid pro quo---"
It's so hard
to know
when the dance
is over
or just begun
Is this
the bar?
or
that?
Have we shuffled
yet?
We have the
license-----
the bar could
be anyware
I love the
low key bars--
a b-flat maybe---
that move each week
bobbing and
weaving
to the
hiphop beat
I love the
quiet
way that avoids
any question
that loves
the peace of
domination
I love the
dance of toe-to-toe
or maybe "quid pro quo---"
It's so hard
to know
when the dance
is over
or just begun
Is this
the bar?
or
that?
Have we shuffled
yet?
We have the
license-----
the bar could
be anyware
"Conference"---a true story
Friday, July 06, 2007
"Conference"------a true Story
(Ed. note: In the midst of the MASH performance at the Evansville PAC, I thought I might post a little sketch of hospital life. The Observer was a hospital business manager in an earlier period. )
Everybody knows that it is best if the doctor looks at your injury or test results and seems very bored with it----it probably is "NORMAL." That is good for you.
The very worst thing is when you hear those words, " HMMMMM. This is very I N T E R E S T I N G." Always be wary when you hear that. That normally means that the doctor does not know what is wrong or that he/she knows and it might be bad or complicated.
If it is complicated, the regular doctor might refer you to a specialist.
There is someting else though, not called a "consult" but a "conference". I thought you might be interested.
This is a very complicated case where ....lets just say this is a cardiac case.....your cardiologist would ask others to review the current tests and go over in conference what course of care should be pursued. Techs are also invited to attend. These meetings ususally occur in the very early morning and are part of continuing education for all involved.
It might also surprise you that there are differences of opinion as to what course to pursue in various cases. Yes. Even heated discussion. At the end of the conference they try to reach a consensus on what is best for the patient. After all ------- a life is on the line. Maybe even yours.
I mention this little story....because in public life....and in planning decisions...it is o.k. to take a little time out....for a "conference"----and not rush things for an agenda or two...and just put the patient first....or the community needs first as the case may be.
Posted by Evansville Observer at 12:25 PM
"Conference"------a true Story
(Ed. note: In the midst of the MASH performance at the Evansville PAC, I thought I might post a little sketch of hospital life. The Observer was a hospital business manager in an earlier period. )
Everybody knows that it is best if the doctor looks at your injury or test results and seems very bored with it----it probably is "NORMAL." That is good for you.
The very worst thing is when you hear those words, " HMMMMM. This is very I N T E R E S T I N G." Always be wary when you hear that. That normally means that the doctor does not know what is wrong or that he/she knows and it might be bad or complicated.
If it is complicated, the regular doctor might refer you to a specialist.
There is someting else though, not called a "consult" but a "conference". I thought you might be interested.
This is a very complicated case where ....lets just say this is a cardiac case.....your cardiologist would ask others to review the current tests and go over in conference what course of care should be pursued. Techs are also invited to attend. These meetings ususally occur in the very early morning and are part of continuing education for all involved.
It might also surprise you that there are differences of opinion as to what course to pursue in various cases. Yes. Even heated discussion. At the end of the conference they try to reach a consensus on what is best for the patient. After all ------- a life is on the line. Maybe even yours.
I mention this little story....because in public life....and in planning decisions...it is o.k. to take a little time out....for a "conference"----and not rush things for an agenda or two...and just put the patient first....or the community needs first as the case may be.
Posted by Evansville Observer at 12:25 PM
Saturday, August 4, 2007
"Getting to Yes"
Nostalgia: Economic Development: "Getting to Yes." (May 16, 2006)
Tuesday, May 16, 2006
Getting to "Yes." or; What the case of the silent juror in the Mousauai trial tells us; Or, a short primer in economic development negotiation
One of the classic texts in any salesman's library is the book titled, "Getting to Yes." It has been 20 years or so since I have read it, but I will go over the essentials.
In order to be an effective salesman, one has to visualize where the prospect is coming from----- what the needs are. Only once all this has been listened to, can one proceed to close the sale.
However, as one might theorize, in modern life, we have become so rushed, and in fact very resistant to listening to anything at all of others' opinions on most subjects (think of the last time you have changed your mind on anything) one might debate that in fact the whole process of effective "contracts" between folks has seriously broken down. We have become shippers of 'widgets" take em or leave em. When broken just discard and replace.
Buyer says "This is what I am looking for." Seller says, "This is what I have to sell take it or leave it." End of discussion.
In economic development, governments say, "We need a project where the taxpayer will benefit through tax increment and in a situation where government assistance is the key to going foreward, rather than simply a handout in the normal course of business. Developers say, " We want assistance for all situations or we won't do the deal."
As is so comprehensively covered in the "Audible Althouse #49" in the previous post, the case of the silent juror in the Mousauii terror case has some instruction to governments on how to effectively negotiate in situations such as this. To recap---there were 11 jurors that wanted to execute and one holdout juror. In secret voting the 1 holdout juror refused to identify him/herself. After several ballots, of 11-1, the jurors were confronted with a dilema. What to do. So, absent identification of the lone dissenter, they began to "imagine" what the arguments of the other side were. After several days of this, they agreed to a life sentence.
In negotiation, there is what I call the "Jersey hang up" strategy. If a person that is negotiating with you refuses to listen to what your needs are, simply hang up. No discussion. It creates the "Song of Silence" and in that silence the other party has to review. Eventually, the listening begins or nothing happens. Either is ok.
(ed. note. Click on the post for the full Audible Althouse
L
Tuesday, May 16, 2006
Getting to "Yes." or; What the case of the silent juror in the Mousauai trial tells us; Or, a short primer in economic development negotiation
One of the classic texts in any salesman's library is the book titled, "Getting to Yes." It has been 20 years or so since I have read it, but I will go over the essentials.
In order to be an effective salesman, one has to visualize where the prospect is coming from----- what the needs are. Only once all this has been listened to, can one proceed to close the sale.
However, as one might theorize, in modern life, we have become so rushed, and in fact very resistant to listening to anything at all of others' opinions on most subjects (think of the last time you have changed your mind on anything) one might debate that in fact the whole process of effective "contracts" between folks has seriously broken down. We have become shippers of 'widgets" take em or leave em. When broken just discard and replace.
Buyer says "This is what I am looking for." Seller says, "This is what I have to sell take it or leave it." End of discussion.
In economic development, governments say, "We need a project where the taxpayer will benefit through tax increment and in a situation where government assistance is the key to going foreward, rather than simply a handout in the normal course of business. Developers say, " We want assistance for all situations or we won't do the deal."
As is so comprehensively covered in the "Audible Althouse #49" in the previous post, the case of the silent juror in the Mousauii terror case has some instruction to governments on how to effectively negotiate in situations such as this. To recap---there were 11 jurors that wanted to execute and one holdout juror. In secret voting the 1 holdout juror refused to identify him/herself. After several ballots, of 11-1, the jurors were confronted with a dilema. What to do. So, absent identification of the lone dissenter, they began to "imagine" what the arguments of the other side were. After several days of this, they agreed to a life sentence.
In negotiation, there is what I call the "Jersey hang up" strategy. If a person that is negotiating with you refuses to listen to what your needs are, simply hang up. No discussion. It creates the "Song of Silence" and in that silence the other party has to review. Eventually, the listening begins or nothing happens. Either is ok.
(ed. note. Click on the post for the full Audible Althouse
L
"The Magic of Double Down"
Friday, August 03, 2007
Nostalgia: The Magic of "Double-Down"----In Gambling...In Life ......
(Ed.note: This piece was written on a Tandy 1000 almost 20 years ago. Nothing like a declining stock market to bring back the nostalgia. )
Some years ago, in high school, right after Algebra II was completed in the semester, we had a time to study probability. Or more specifically, studied how probability is expressed in gambling and algebra.
The very first class, I remember the instructor asking whether if one rolled a dice, and had lost, whether the odds of winning on the second roll were increased. Most of the kids in the room, including myself, felt that the odds got better with each passing loss. What a blow to learn that it was not so.
Over the years, beginning in the 1960's, I remember some whispered discussions within our family on whether, even though Control Data stock had been falling, whether one should "double down" to lock in the magical "basis" and thus be prepared for a large win if and when-- and of course it must-- go higher ---eventually-- if one lived long enough.
What we learned in the 60's, it seems has to be learned all over again each decade. I know that even though I learned it well, I promptly forgot it in a moment of optimism later.
I even went further. It was not good enough to "double down"----the numbers did not work out fast enough. One had to be prepared to "Triple Down" in cases where the bold could win. Yes. That theory had flaws too.
The problem. In declining markets, in the 60's, 70's, 80's, 90's and on, if a stock goes to ZERO, nothing works. And indeed, if funds go down, and even seemingly slowly, diversification alone does not work....at least for stocks. Make a note of it.
0 comments:
Nostalgia: The Magic of "Double-Down"----In Gambling...In Life ......
(Ed.note: This piece was written on a Tandy 1000 almost 20 years ago. Nothing like a declining stock market to bring back the nostalgia. )
Some years ago, in high school, right after Algebra II was completed in the semester, we had a time to study probability. Or more specifically, studied how probability is expressed in gambling and algebra.
The very first class, I remember the instructor asking whether if one rolled a dice, and had lost, whether the odds of winning on the second roll were increased. Most of the kids in the room, including myself, felt that the odds got better with each passing loss. What a blow to learn that it was not so.
Over the years, beginning in the 1960's, I remember some whispered discussions within our family on whether, even though Control Data stock had been falling, whether one should "double down" to lock in the magical "basis" and thus be prepared for a large win if and when-- and of course it must-- go higher ---eventually-- if one lived long enough.
What we learned in the 60's, it seems has to be learned all over again each decade. I know that even though I learned it well, I promptly forgot it in a moment of optimism later.
I even went further. It was not good enough to "double down"----the numbers did not work out fast enough. One had to be prepared to "Triple Down" in cases where the bold could win. Yes. That theory had flaws too.
The problem. In declining markets, in the 60's, 70's, 80's, 90's and on, if a stock goes to ZERO, nothing works. And indeed, if funds go down, and even seemingly slowly, diversification alone does not work....at least for stocks. Make a note of it.
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